CNBC Market Insider: Wall Street's Bull Is Tired but Not Out

The stock market's two-month-old bull run is getting tired, but it still may not be ready to pause.

In the coming week, investors will have plenty of data to mull over, but none as pivotal as Friday's better-than-expected April jobs report. Retail sales data Wednesday should provide a good look at how the economy is faring, as will weekly jobless claims and inventory data. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at a conference Monday night, and there are just a few earnings, including Wal-Mart [WMT 50.14 0.25 (+0.5%) ] and several other major retailers.

"Nobody believes in the rally, which makes me think it could last longer," said Jason Trennert, managing partner and chief investment strategist at Strategas.

"I'm skeptical too, but I wouldn't be short," said Trennert, who spent the past week speaking with hedge fund managers. "The one thing I can say is if this goes on much longer, you're going to force more people into the market, especially the hedge fund community."

Traders are closely watching the behavior of the financial sector, which has been a market leader, doubling since stocks started moving higher in early March. In the past week, the group made double digit gains as the government released results of its stress tests for 19 major institutions. Traders say the reports, which contained few surprises, drew buyers into the group but also forced shorts to cover, driving prices higher. The government's announcement, and subsequent comments from banks on their capital raising plans, also lifted a cloud from the group and made their stocks more "investable."

"We're now talking about valuations, not just whether they'll survive," said one trader of the banks.

But still, there is a powerful debate in the market between those who believe its recent gains are topping out and those who think stocks can still go higher. "I wouldn't make a decision about this market until next Friday just because of options expirations. I think we're going to be very choppy and then it will stabilize after that," said Patrick Kernen, who trades S&P 500 options for Cardinal Capital. The expiration next Friday is for options on indexes, equities and ETFs. more...