Quick Comment: We retain our Overweight rating on PT Telkom
after the company released solid 4Q08 and 1Q09 results with consolidated EBITDA and normalized NPAT beating our estimates by 3-4% and 2-3%, respectively. Our FY09 estimates are 2-3% below consensus; hence we believe the results were largely in-line with market expectations.
PT Telkom is one of our top picks in regional telcos given improving competitive dynamics in the Indonesian mobile market as smaller operators struggle with capex. The company’s coverage head-start and strong balance sheet remains a key competitive advantage, in our view. TLKM’s valuation is reasonable at ‘09E P/E of 12x and EV/EBITDA of 5x. The stock offers a dividend yield of 5%, boosted by additional share buyback of 1.5-2%.
4Q08 Results Highlights:
Consolidated revenues of Rp16.97 tn (+2.3% YoY; +10.6% QoQ) were 5.1% above our expectations;
EBITDA of Rp8.2 tn (-8.7% YoY; +9.7% QoQ) was 2.6% above our estimate. EBITDA margins narrowed 40 bps QoQ to 48.4%, compared to our forecast of 49.6%;
EBIT of Rp5.1 tn (-22% YoY; +8.9% QoQ) was largely in-line our estimate;
NPAT of Rp1.7 trillion (-44.1% YoY; -35.2% QoQ) was 24.7% below our forecast mainly due to forex loss of Rp1.6 tn. Normalized NPAT of Rp2.8 tn (-12% YoY; +3.4% QoQ) was 2% above our forecast.
1Q09 Results Highlights:
Consolidated revenues of Rp15.4 tn (-2.3% YoY; -9% QoQ) were 2.8% below our expectations;
EBITDA of Rp8.3 tn (-8.7% YoY, +0.5% QoQ) was 3.5% above our estimate. EBITDA margins improved 510 bps QoQ to 53.4%, compared to our forecast of 50.1%;
EBIT of Rp5.3 tn (-19.2% YoY; +3.1 QoQ) was 5.1% above our estimate;
NPAT of Rp2.5 tn (-23.4% YoY; +44.6% QoQ) was 3.7% below our forecast mainly due to forex loss of Rp212 bn; Normalized NPAT of Rp2.6 tn (-19.4% YoY; -6.3% QoQ) was 2.3% above our forecast.
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