Indonesia’s consumption has not only been resilient but is already showing signs of bottoming out given: 1) a recovery in the Consumer Confidence Index and mass-market retail, flour and property sales and 2) an expansion of disposable income as wage increases outpace inflation.
We believe that consumer loans will be the major driver with 20- 27% growth expected in 2009-10 and 1.1-1.4x industry loan growth. We expect a 30% earnings CAGR for Indonesian banks in the next two years. Among the banks, we see BDMN and BBRI as the key beneficiaries.
We also expect lower lending and deposit rates in 2H09 given: 1) lower liquidity segmentation, 2) higher competition for lending and 3) lower competition for funding, benefitting BDMN and BBRI given their stickier lending rate than funding costs.
Indonesian banks’ higher P/Bs (relative to their regional peers) is supported by their higher ROE. Adjusting for these, we believe that Indonesian banks are largely in line with their regional peers. Our preference for Indonesia bank sector is in the following order: BBRI, BDMN, BMRI, BBNI and PNBN.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar