Energi Mega (ENRG) yesterday announced a deal to acquire a 10% interest in Masela PSC block. Key information such as pricing and reserves data are noticeably absent. Official query by the stock exchange may make ENRG provide additional disclosure later on. Looking at ENRG’s acquisition track record and the deal’s dynamics, this deal may later proof as good news for the company. Note however that ENRG management has hinted for the need to do rights issue, to pay for the acquisition and for debt reduction.
To recap, ENRG acquired a stake in Kangean block in Aug-04 for US$0.8/boe (US$165mn) on 2P reserves. In May-07, it farmed out 50% of the same Kangean block for US$3/boe (US$360mn). Capex needs for the development of the Kangean block were borne by the new partner (Japex).
From my understanding, Masela could be the second largest gas block in Indonesia after Tangguh. Inpex conducted appraisal drilling in 2007 to early 2008. The company has since increased the reserves estimate, initially estimated at 10-14 TCF (1.67-2.33 billion barrels) based on 4 appraisal wells. On this number, a 10% interest should work out to 166-233 million barrels, vs. ENRG current 2P of 360 million barrels.
ENRG’s 2P reserves currently stands at 360 million barrels, 237 of which is Kangean. Based on its current market cap of Rp4,680bn (US$491mn) and a net debt Rp4,529bn (US$475mn), I calculate an EV/2P reserves of US$2.68 for the stock. An acquisition price of below US$1/boe could be seen as a value enhancing deal by the market, with share price impact depending on the size of Masela’s 2P reserves as well.
Importantly, the positive sentiment may spill-over to other Bakrie names especially Bumi Resources, who is anticipated to make major acquisitions in the short term as well. The selling flow in Bumi from institutional investors appears to have moderated (total selling flow adds up to more than 12% of the company since CIC news), while newsflow may start to turn for the better.
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