JSMR revenues rose by 4.8%yoy and by 25.6%qoq during 9M09. The growth was backed by rise in traffic of 3.7%yoy reaching 682mn vehicles for 9M09. (75.7% of our FY09F). The results are inline with ours and consensus estimates with operating profit forming 72.9% of ours and 71.0% of consensus estimates. However, because of extraordinary gains, net profit achieved 93% of our FY09F. We maintain our earnings forecast for FY09-10F, and value JSMR at Rp2,100/share based on DCF valuation.
9M09 results inline. JSMR reported 9M09 results with revenues reaching Rp2.6tn (+4.8%yoy). Operating profits however fell by 0.2%yoy because of rising opex primarily coming from toll road maintenance and general administration. There is an increase in toll road service expenses by 13.3% which resulted from the fulfillment of the Minimum Service Standard as one of the requirements of tariff increase. The revenue growth was primarily driven by rising traffic which grew by 3.7%yoy. On qoq basis revenues grew by 5.4%qoq while operating profit by whopping 25.6%qoq. The results are inline with our and consensus estimates wi! th operat ing profit forming 72.9% of our and 71.0% of consensus estimates. However, the company achieved 93.6% of our full year net profit (99.5% of consensus); this is because of a one-time extraordinary gain arising from an equity transaction of JORR W1 section.
Traffic growth. The traffic growth was driven primarily from the Purbaleunyi, Jakarta Outer ring road, Jagorawi and Tomang Cengkareng toll road. They together contribute 60% of the total traffic. The highest traffic growth is in the Purbaleunyi toll road. Tomang-Cengkareng contributes the highest traffic (28%), at least double of traffic on any toll road. JORR and Tomang-Cengkareng contributes highest to the revenues, about 20% each.
4Q09 to be better. We expect 4Q09 to be better because the tariffs have been raised on 11 out of 13 toll roads by average of 16%. In FY07, when the tariffs were raised on the 11 toll roads then 4Q07 contributed 30.1% to revenues. We expect that increased tariffs should contribute 7.1% to total revenues. For FY10F we expect the contribution to be 13.1% from the tariff rise on the 11 toll roads. Separately, company expects the capex in FY09F to reach Rp4.69tn which is inline with our forecasts.
Maintain Buy. We expect revenues to grow by 14.6%yoy in FY10F driven by rising tariffs and operation of new toll roads. Based on our DCF we value JSMR at Rp2,100/share. It implies a PER09-10F of 18.2x-10.6x, respectively.
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