CIMB Quick Takes - Astra International - Strong sales, small headwind

Maintain Outperform on Astra. Preliminary data for April wholesales suggest an unrelenting sales momentum. Motorcycle sales hit a fresh monthly high of 657k units. This is on pace for 7m-7.3m units for the year, or 20-24% yoy growth, in line with our forecasts. Meanwhile, car wholesales were virtually unchanged mom at 65.5k units. At this rate, car sales may hit 650k-700k units for the year, on pace for 34-44% growth. No change to our earnings forecasts or target price, which remains set at our sum-of-the-parts valuation of Rp52,400, and implying 16.6x and 14.1x CY10-11 earnings. We see stock catalysts from further strong wholesales data and robust distribution margins. Talks of cutting fuel subsidies may dent sentiment, but the impact is likely to be short-lived as we believe fuel-price adjustments, likely by next year, would be limited.