Bank Mandiri is going to release their 2Q10 earnings this evening after the market closes and will simultaneously hold an analyst meeting at 5:30PM.
We expect the numbers to be good, as loan growth in Indonesia continues to pick up in 2Q. Lending growth will likely be driven by the consumer business lines, particularly mortgages.
Our forecast stands at Rp 9.15tn for FY 2010, and if the bank reports north of Rp4,100 in 1H10 we believe they would be on track to reach our 10CL forecast. Our 10CL EPS estimate of Rp434 stands at 7% above the consensus estimates.
Bank Mandiri is the first large cap bank to report figures in Indonesia, this follows Bank BTN's earnings last week which were strong, but included higher than anticipated credit metrics.
Three things to watch out for:
1) Rights Issue progress
2) Progress on bad credits: Domba Mas, Garuda, etc.
3) Discount opportunity on written off portfolio
Generally speaking, our bank forecasts have been in line anticipating higher loan growth in Indonesia to this point. We may have to revise our price targets higher based on 2011 metrics across most of our coverage universe.
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