No change in 2011 nickel price of $8.25/lb and LT $7/lb, while 2010 nickel price assumption is now downgraded to $9.19/lb (3-mo future is now $8.66/lb). @Rp3,775 we maintain sell INCO (TP Rp3,100), while @Rp1,970 we maintain hold ANTM (TP Rp1,900).
Fonny Surya : We have downgraded our 2010 forecast for nickel prices from an average of US$10.4/lb to US$9.2/lb, in line with our bearish view on nickels, driven by slower demand and stronger supply growth. We maintain our bearish view on nickels, but are slightly more positive on gold, which drives our views on ANTM (NEUTRAL) and INCO (UNDERPERFORM).
We use historical average EV/EBITDA to value ANTM and INCO. Based on 5.5x EV/EBITDA and 6.3x EV/EBITDA for INCO and ANTM, respectively, we have downgraded our target prices for ANTM to Rp1,900 (from Rp2,000) and for INCO to Rp3,100 (from Rp3,500).
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