(ASII IJ / ASII.JK, UNDERPERFORM - Maintained, Rp15,450 - Tgt. Rp15,300, Automobiles and Parts)
1Q09 results should be weak for Astra, with its three main businesses hit hard by the slowdown. The auto business was probably hit the hardest, given its sensitivity to interest rates (volume declines of 7-37% qoq) and currency (depreciated another 6% qoq). We estimate 1Q09 earnings at Rp1.2tr-1.5tr, -30 to -45% qoq, and a similar decline yoy. Given a higher base in 2Q-3Q08, earnings may continue to decline steeply going into 2-3Q09. Against this and with its defensive' appeal fading under a higher risk appetite, we maintain our Underperform rating, albeit with a higher target price of Rp15,300 (from Rp10,650) after our adjustments for its agribusiness and heavy equipment business. Our target price remains based on sum-of-the-parts analysis.
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