Our versatile banking guru Nico Oentung, finally downgrades his favorite bank: Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) to UPF. This could well be Nico’s last report with CLSA. If you would like to know what his next plans are, then have “a quiet word” with him. Hint: he is crossing over to the enlightened side and taking real responsibility now, after spending 5 years in the dark side of the force.
Back to BBCA, for sure this is a bank with a great franchise, very well managed, and great CG. But at 3x 09 P/B, BBCA valuations are steep and upside looks limited. Plus, the trend is not our friend:
NIM under pressure, expect NIM to decline from current 6.8% to 6.1% by year end.
Loans growth moderated: from 37% YoY in 4Q08 to 27% in 1Q09.
Provisioning remains high: due to NPL risks.
NPL ticking, higher than expectation at 1.6% (from 0.6% in 4Q08) mainly driven by downgrades from the corp segment.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar