Bank Mandiri (Persero) (BMRI.JK)
Alert: Bisnis Indonesia Reports Above Consensus 2009 Earnings
Bisnis Indonesia has reported Bank Mandiri (BMRI) 2009 earnings at Rp6.7trn. This is 9% above Citi forecast of Rp6.2trn and 6% above Consensus Rp6.35trn. Management guidance for 2009 profit was “above Rp6trn”. The newspaper has mentioned that these are un-audited numbers. Audited results announcement is scheduled for the end of March 2010.
The positive variation, in our opinion, is likely due to 1) better than expected NIMs in Q4 CY09 and 2) lower than expected credit cost. Declining rates, particularly on SBI holdings (almost 30% of deposits) have negative impact on asset yields.
These are partly offset by lower deposit rate, following the agreement to cap Time Deposits at 7.5% (Aug to Nov) and 7% (Nov onwards). We have assumed flat Net Interest Income in Q4 compared to Q3, with higher volumes offset by lower NIMs.
Provisions have been assumed at Rp0.45trn, slightly below the Rp0.55trn of the previous two quarters.
The CY09 profit of Rp6.7trn implies Q4 CY09 profit was Rp2.1trn (up 24% q-o-q and 54% y-o-y).
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