The Indonesian Cement Association has released cement data for February2010. Sales remain quite resilient. Please see comment by head of research Nick Cashmore.
Total domestic sales came to 3.0m tonnes for the month, down 11% mom but up 13% yoy. Total sales (including exports) were 3.15m tonnes, down 10% mom but up 13% yoy.
Industry exports continue to decline. Total exports accounted for only 5% of total volume for February, down from 6% in December and 9% in September.
Because of extremely tight capacity utilisation rates at Semen Gresik, Holcim and Indocement continue to gain market share.
While domestic volume for Semen Gresik was up 6% yoy in Feb, Indocement saw 20% yoy growth and Holcim Indonesia 27% yoy.
Our assumptions are 5% growth for SMGR and 10% growth for INTP and SMCB in 2010.
First quarter volume is seasonally weak due to the rainy season and this year is no exception with 1Q10 volume down from 4Q09. However, 2010 looks to be a banner year for industry growth, driven by low interest rates and what we believe is the start of a multi-year housing boom.
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