Credit Suisse - GLOBAL: FOMC flat, Asia Strategy- Further EPS upgrades- Buy ASII/UNTR/ITMG

Sakthi’s call to Buy ASII/UNTR/ITMG is in line with our Top-8 stock picks! Both Sakthi and Arief continue to Overweight Indonesia. Recent political noises on Parliament Votes for Bank Century Bailout (Opposition won 60%-40% to President SBY), for now has become sudden quiet, indicating 1) Institutionalising at Parliament is happening, 2) President SBY remains in control, however I do expect confirmation by Cabinet Reshuffle latest in 4Q2010 (President SBY sat for 2nd 5-year Term on 21st October 2009). Arief’s Target Index remains JCI 3,300pts by end-2010F (implying 17.5x 2010F PER, a level seen during 1992-1997 stable strong economics growth), with Top-8 stocks ASII, BBRI, BMRI, INDF, INTP, ITMG, SMGR & UNTR!

· US Economics Team: FOMC last night maintained rates near zero (0%-0.25% rates) for an “extended period.” As we expected, the “extended period” phraseology was left intact. Although there is nothing from today’s Statement that suggests the phrase is on its last legs, media reports point to increasing discomfort with that language among some members of the Committee (and Kansas City President Hoenig repeated his dissent over the wording). As widely expected, the asset purchase program is winding down at the end of this month (on schedule). The Committee said they will “monitor” the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools “as necessary” – leaving the door slightly ajar to reactivate the purchase program and other credit facilities if financial conditions warrant (i.e. if mortgage rates surge, the Fed could always come back in the game).

· Sakthi Siva (Daily Attached): If we look at 2010E consensus EPS revisions in the first two weeks of March, what has not changed is upgrades. While the upgrade so far has been just 0.5%, March represents the 11th consecutive month of upgrades. But what appears to be changing though is leadership. The strongest upgrades to 2010E consensus EPS are in Singapore (+2.3%), Australia (+2.3%) and Indonesia (+1.5%). See Figure 1. In Indonesia, the strongest upgrades are in consumer cyclicals (+6.7%) and energy (+3.3%). Top picks from the CS regional portfolio to play these upgrades are SIA (Singapore Airlines), Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Astra International, United Tractors and ITMG.