BANKING SECTORWe refer to our previous outlook on banking sector http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/bright-info-weekly-outlook-commodity.html . We still caution about this sector. We still see potential increase on Nonperforming Loan. We see that loan on category collectability of special concern was increasing. In January 2009 this category loan increases by idr 9.14 T to idr 84.72 T at the end of January. In economic slowdown like now we believe that loan on category of special concern could be a potential Non performing loan.
Until mid of March 2009 nominal of Nonperforming loan was idr 54 T increasing sharply from idr 42 T at the end of December 2008. Nonperforming loan ratio was increasing to 4.2% at March 2009 from end of December 2008. Indonesian Central Bank predicts that Nonperforming loan could reach 5% at the end of 2009. On this situation we still caution with this sector and we prefer sell on the strength. We will watch 1Q09 for the next move.
AGRO SECTOROn the other hand referring to previous outlook http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/bright-info-weekly-outlook-palm-oil.html on agro sector http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/bright-info-weekly-outlook-commodity.html we look more bullish http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/more-bullish-on-commodity-personal.html. Our view is that demand for edible oil will improve following on economic recovery. Demand for edible oil continues strong from traditional buyers like China and India. Price continues up following demand. For CPO we assume that price will average on $650 on 2009 outlook. With that price and increasing demand we believe agro sector will give us potential return better than banking sector. Tractate European Union stated that in 2010 biofuel must contained 10% edible oil would invite more demand.
On that reason we still positive on agro with recommendation accumulate and hold. Our Top Pick is AALI, LSIP and SGRO but we bet on UNSP.
Related Story;
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/indias-adani-wilmar-to-double-palm-oil.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/commodity-markets-show-signs-of-rebound.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/chinas-february-palm-oil-imports-surge.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/business-times-palm-futures-to-move.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/malaysias-b5-scheme-may-use-up-3pc-of.html
COAL SECTORCoal price is still weakening until mid of March 2009. Monthly average Newcastle coal index on March’09 was $61.37 down from $75.03 at Feb’09. Demand still weak but we believe will improve soon. Demand for global electricity start climbing from industry, oil price continues up. Demand for crude oil going strong and US stock of crude oil start decreasing. Gasoline demand continues up. We think that deals from coal producers like BHP and Xstrata and coal users like steel industry for long-term contract are better than expected. We believe coal demand from power plant still strong and will improve. We still positive on this sector for mid and long-term investment.
On that reason we still positive on coal sector with recommendation accumulate and hold. Our Top Pick is ITMG and PTBA. Start positive on ADRO and we bet on BUMI.
Related story;
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/business-standard-india-steel-makers-to.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/londoncommodity-pln-demand-for-coal-to.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/reuters-nippon-steel-bma-agree-57-pct.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/business-standard-india-govt-revises.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/bhpb-moving-towards-129t-benchmark-for.html
• http://bright-info.blogspot.com/2009/03/business-insider-oil-price-spike.html
[Personal Opinion ]
=====================================================================================
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by [BRIGHT INFO]. Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of [BRIGHT INFO]. We cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar