Current concern on PTBA is the on-going weakening of coal price that will affect unsold volume or even those already binded in a contract. The weakening coal prices were due to global economic crisis as indicated by clear weakening of US import
activities in 4Q08 (stock note 17/03/2009).
Most of mining companies under our coverage, however, locked in sales in the early 2009 and did not experience slowing volume of thermal coal demand. In our view, this is due to their customers are of better quality profile as compared to the average customers in the coal thermal market.
To this point, global recession may negatively affect mining companies under our coverage through on-going weakening coal price instead of quantity sold. As such we cut our ASP for the year 2009 by 12% for domestic sales to Rp608.688/ton and 11% for export sales to US$58.5/ton.
Apart from the price factor, we view PTBA (and other mining companies under our coverage) to be fundamentaly worth to invest in. Current DCF calculation, with WACC of 16.3% and LTG 2%, still calls for the share price to be valued at Rp8.858 per share, significantly higher compared to yesterday’s closing of Rp6.800 per share. BUY
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