CIMB Economic Update 1Q09 GDP: Slower but still positive

Indonesia's real GDP growth slowed to 4.4% yoy in 1Q09 (+5.2% in 4Q08), underpinned by resilient domestic demand amid sluggish exports. This came in a tad higher than our forecast (4.2%) as well as market consensus (4.3%). Easing commodity prices, lower fuel prices as well as lower interest rates helped to lift private consumption while fiscal pump-priming boosted the growth of public consumption. Domestic demand remains the prime mover. We maintain our GDP growth estimates of 3.5% for this year and 5.0% for 2010.