Indonesia's GDP increased 4.4% YoY in 1Q09, in line with consensus expectations (Bloomberg: 4.3%, range: 0.9% to 5.2%; Macq: 4.0%). Real GDP growth decelerated to 4.4% YoY in 1Q09, the slowest pace in five years, and lower than the growth of 5.2% in 4Q08. The economy had grown 6.1% in full-year 2008, with growth averaging 6.4% in the first three quarters.
On the expenditure side, private consumption unexpectedly picked up to grow 5.8% YoY following a moderation to 4.8% in 4Q08. Investment growth, however, weakened further, to 3.5% YoY in 1Q09 from 9.1% in the closing quarter of 2008. The decline in imports (-24.1% YoY) was unsurprisingly greater than the drop in exports (-19.1%).
On the production side, the farm sector's outcome remained resilient at 4.8% (4Q08: 4.7%), but manufacturing sector's output was hit by the slump in exports and softening domestic demand.
Outlook
Our positive outlook for Indonesian macro remains unchanged from that detailed in Relatively smooth sailing for now, 29 April 2009. Our GDP growth forecast for Indonesia was last revised in October 2008 following the outbreak of the post-Lehman global financial distress in the prior month, and Indonesia was expected to be the least affected Asean economy, partly owing to the resilience of domestic demand and lower interest rates.
We maintain our full-year 2009 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, though there could be a slight upside risk for 2H09. Note that the Indonesian economy has been relatively less hit by the global financial crisis, hinting that the 2H09 sequential normalisation will be weaker than that in the more meaningfully hit Asean economies such as Singapore and Thailand.
Still, the latest consensus expectation for 2009 GDP growth is at a low 3.1%, and will likely have to be raised.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar