Global economic conditions that show signs of recovery responded activly by the national banking sector. Among the banking sector began incessant provides loans on the property sector.Central bank is also lending support in the central sector properti. Bank support sekuritisasi or credit with an “EBA” that is still considered less than optimal. From the data that is owned by Bank Indonesia, in December 2008 credit construction reached Rp 48 trillion. Then, real estate credit Rp 28 trillion, and Rp 122 trillion KPR.
The property association estimates that the position of BI rate could reach 7.25% this will have positive impact on the property sector. Achieving the property sector this year is estimated to grow 30% from the realization years ago. The property credit portion last year reached Rp 202 trillion.
The Property price in Indonesia still survive, this is in contrast with conditions in other countries. Because the property price increasing following of inflation only in the last few years. KPR ratio of GDP only about 2% compared with other countries which reached 10%, that’s why the property price in Indonesia is quite stable.
With the SBI at this time on 7.5%, the KPR interest rate could decrease to about 11% from the current position that is still in the range 13-14%. We believe with the decline in interest rates for KPR could increase demand in the property sector. Government has urged banks to immediately reduce the interest rate loan. Sales Segment "Landed residential" relative still growing.
Why Summarecon?
Although Summarecon Agung Tbk PT (SMRA) delays the development project in Bekasi West residensialnya due to global crisis, we believe the delay will not affect much of the growth performance SMRA.
Company still has a strong portfolio of income from the sale of various products in the real estate in two major areas, namely, and Kelapa Gading Serpong. Income was also strengthened by the results that are big enough to rent from Mal Kelapa Gading (MKG), which continues to experience growth. The advantages which also owned other SMRA is its brand image are strong in the consumers as well to develop the area and Kelapa Gading Serpong. SMRA is always maintaining the quality and accuracy of the time.
In this year, Summarecon already set up two new projects that target the med-high segment. The project is the first residential development Grand Orchad builds Kelapa Gading with approximately 750 housing units on the land area of 48 hectares. "The first phase will begin in March 2009 for 18 months," (Corporate Secretary Summarecon Agung).
Grand Orchad development plan will be divided into 5 stages of development with 150 units in each tahapannya. The project is the second Sientia Garden Serpong with 100 hectares. Same as the first project, Sientia Garden will also be built in five phases. Each stage built on the land area of 20 hectares with the number of houses about 500 units. The first stage had "Sold Out".
Although there appeared to slowing economic growth data SMRA sales increased by 5% yoy to be Rp.920triliun 2008. In addition, the new tax regime for final sales tax will change to 5% of the income that the company began in 2009 will bring a positive issue, considering the company's effective tax will lower. The effective tax will decrease to 25% -31% in the years 2009-2011 the amount of tax from 44% effective in 2008. This will boost profits.
We believe that the property with more than 50% discount to RNAV have the interesting "entry point" and promising for investment. Our Top Pick at this time are Summarecon Agung SMRA: IJ, valuation has a very interesting basis with approximately 58% discount to RNAV. We estimate the revenue and net income SMRA for the year 2009 will reach Rp 1.48 trillion and Rp 160 billion.
We recommend Buy with a Target idr420.
SMRA:IJ Summarecon Agung Tbk PT, Industry: Real Estate Oper/Develop
[Personal Opinion ]
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DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by [BRIGHT INFO]. Although the contents of this document may represent the opinion of [BRIGHT INFO]. We cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness.
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