> We believe that March figures suggested signs of stabilization, especially on a MoM basis (-1% for cars and +5% for bikes) though still down YoY, but a recovery is yet to come. During 1Q09, the total auto volumes were on track, reaching 24-26% of our forecasts.
> Average price increases continued in March (around 6% for cars and 3-4% for motorcycles for the first time), which could result in forward buying of vehicles due to anticipation of further increases.
> Astra also said that building up inventory at the dealership levels due to 1) new models (both cars and motorcycles) and 2) weaker-than-expected levels in February, continued in March 2009. We understand that the inventory levels are now back to normal.
> The encouraging signs however are the improvements in the macro environment (falling interest rates, appreciation of the IDR, stable politics, and improving commodity prices), which could lead to better purchasing power. We continue to believe that Astra is well positioned given its dominant position and strong balance sheet.
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