Corporate secretary told Investor Daily newspaper 1Q09 sales and net profit have more than doubled y-o-y. PTBA reported a sales of Rp1.23trn and a net profit of Rp286bn in 1Q08. Doubling these figures, we would get a sales of Rp2.46tn (23% of Macq’s FY est) and a net profit of Rp572bn (20% of Macq’s FY est).
1Q09 should be a strong quarter for PTBA, as the company books its export volumes (35% of total) at 2008 prices of over US$90/t. 2Q09 onward, export prices will fall to between US$60-70/t based on JFY09 settlement. But offseting the high export prices would be the 1) seasonally low sales volume in 1Q, 2) yet-to-be-repriced domestic volumes from Bukit Asam and Tarahan mines (10% of total), that we expect to be re-priced up by 30-50% retroactively.
Macquarie rates the stock a NEUTRAL on 6.8x and 15.0x P/E for 2009 and 2010. We forecast a 51% y-o-y decline in FY10 net income, as we assume domestic coal price to go from US$73 à US$48, and export price to go from US$60 à US$56. We also assume a strengthening Rp/US$ exchange rate from Rp11,125 à Rp9,625, which is a negative for PTBA. If we assume a flat exchange rate, the FY10 P/E will be around 11.5x based on a 38% y-o-y profit decline.
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