(ISAT IJ / ISAT.JK, NEUTRAL - Maintained, Rp5,450 - Tgt. Rp4,900, Telecommunications)
Indosat's 1Q09 performance appears weaker than our expectations, based on QTel's disclosure. 1Q09 revenue and EBITDA are estimated to have fallen a sharper-than-expected 13% and 16% qoq respectively, making up only 21% of our FY09 estimates. 1Q09 typically makes up 22-23% of full-year numbers. Indosat's subscriber base also slipped 10% qoq to 33m. The results support our view that Telkomsel is regaining subscriber market share from its rivals. We are maintaining our NEUTRAL rating on Indosat for now despite the surge in its share price past our DCF-based target of Rp4,900. We would advise investors to take profit on Indosat given its recent strong price performance and what appears to be a disappointing 1Q09 performance. We prefer Telkom (Neutral, target price Rp8,500) for its stronger fundamentals and more attractive valuations.
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