(PNBN IJ / PNBN.JK, TRADING BUY - Upgraded, Rp590 - Tgt. Rp800, Financial Services)
ANZ has amassed a 38% stake, with the latest 8% addition from the market, that appears to have become a stumbling block to any attempt by the founder to sell its majority stake to other parties some time in the future. To regain its bargaining chip, the founder could raise its stake and dilute ANZ's ownership, but ANZ would also be aware of this and take precautions. The 4bn warrants that will due in 80 days' time seem to provide a good play. Panin's warrants and shares could be in demand if there is any indication of hostility from either party. We upgrade the stock to Trading Buy from Underperform and raise our target price to Rp800 (from Rp540), using recent banking M&A valuations as reference.
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