(PNBN IJ / PNBN.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp1,110 - Tgt. Rp1,280, Financial Services)
Maintain OUTPERFORM with target price raised to Rp1,280. Late last week, ANZ announced that it will raise its stake in PT ANZ Panin Bank (APB) to the maximum 99% from 85% currently, a move which may cost them US$44m. This development, which precedes ANZ's takeover of RBS Indonesia in Jun 10, underpins our earlier view that ANZ could be in the midst of building a bank bigger than Danamon as part of its intention to become one of the major banking players in Indonesia. If that is indeed the case, besides APB and RBS Indonesia, ANZ needs a third and final piece to complete the structure i.e. Bank Panin. However, its current 39% stake in Bank Panin is insufficient for control which could lead to a bid to increase its holdings by buying off the founder's majority stake, which could trigger a tender offer. With the recent developments, we are even more convinced of our earlier thesis. Hence, we raise our target price to Rp1,280 (from Rp900 previously), based on a 20% discount to the average 2008-09 M&A valuation of 3.6x trailing P/BV, a more aggressive figure from 2007-09's 2.5x used previously. We apply the 20% discount to factor in timing uncertainties.
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