basis 6,322kc GAR for deliveries in Apr'10-Mar'11 period, representing a
39% increase vs. last year's reference price of US$70.5/t.
Exports to Japan typically account for about 20-25% of Indonesian
company's total sales. However, the reference price usually sets the tone
for other contract negotiations in the region, and thus bodes well for ASP
outlook of Indonesian coal companies.
The above ref price exceeded DB's 2010 forecast of US$85/t. If we were
to assume a US$100/t benchmark on all the unpriced /index-linked volumes
this year, this would suggest some earnings upside to our top coal picks
ITMG & PTBA of 19% and 13% respectively. Meanwhile, the implied earnings
upside to Bumi would be 57%, due to the higher financial leverage and
larger portion of unpriced volumes (see table below).
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