JPM analyst’s current target price for ANTM is Rp2,575 per share, based on 2010 average nickel price of USD16,750/tonne.
JPM global mining team, on 1 Apr 2010, raised 2010 average nickel price to USD22,858/tonne or a significant 36.5% increase over previous forecast. 2011 average nickel price was also raised to USD18,250/tonne from earlier forecast of USD 16,000/tonne.
JPM analyst earlier mentioned that for every 10% increase in average nickel price for 2010, ANTM’s EPS would be impacted by 21%. While for each 10% movement in Rp/US$ assumption (Rp10,000/US$), ANTM EPS will be impacted by 11.9% (see attached report).
We will just have to wait as to when JPM Indon analyst will adjust his forecasts to reflect the new nickel price assumptions. And we think that ANTM 2010 EPS will be significantly adjusted upwards (possibly by 50-60%).
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