CIMB Economic Update External Trade - Feb 10: Exports still going strong

Export growth stayed at a strong double-digit 57% yoy in February (59% in Jan), benefiting from the recovery in global trade as well as firm commodity prices. However, February's exports were below our estimate of 61.5% and market consensus (64.1%). Oil exports and non-oil exports jumped 110% and 48% respectively in February. We remain positive on the export outlook though yoy growth is expected to moderate in 2H10 as the favourable base effect fades. We raise this year's export-growth estimate to 15.0% from 3.0%. The export recovery together with sustained domestic demand should drive this year's GDP growth higher to 5.8% from 4.5% in 2009.