* Link to Johanna Chua's Asia macro report https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SAP40249.pdf. Indonesia is on pg 33. She believes capital flows into Asia will persist, driving asset prices and stronger currencies, but wary on inflation and shrinking CA surpluses.
* For Indo, she raised GDP growth forecast to 6.3% (from 6.2%) in 2011 on signs of a more sustained investment pick-up.
* Inflation risks remain an issue, but with a reserve requirement hike effective in November, we expect BI will defer its first rate hike until Jan 2011. We expect rate to remain unchanged this year at 6.5%, and to rise to 7.5% at end-2011.
* Infrastructure progress still looks slow, and key will be land acquisition bill that is pending submission in parliament. JSMR is a direct beneficiary of a more effective land clearing bill, and indirectly propery and cement also benefit.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar