We have raised our oil price forecast to $83/bbl for Brent in the fourth quarter and have lifted our projections for 2011 from $80.25 to $84.50—with prices seen averaging $90 in 4Q11. Balances suggest that even this price projection could be an understatement, highlighting the risks to prices outside of the recent range.
Broad-based demand strength across the global petroleum product base, together with the recovery from the “Eurozone crisis”, a stabilization of the manufacturing sector and the Fed moving to an easing bias, has forced a significant upward revision to our estimate of world oil demand.
While the supply side continues to respond to attractive prices, short-term output gains do not appear to be sufficient to offset building tightness in the oil market. Stock draws are normal and to be expected over the winter months, but nevertheless will prove supportive to the market.
Since the March OPEC meeting, it has been clear that the producer group is in no hurry to cap prices if they are driven higher by stronger world economic growth. While OPEC holds plenty of spare capacity, those likely to leak output at higher prices are already doing so. The core Gulf Trio of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE
want to see inventories lower before they add.
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