The Central Statistics Agency is scheduled to announce the Sep10 inflation and Aug10 trade figure on Friday (1/10).We expect Sep10 inflation to come lower than the previous month,at 0.56%mom or 5.92%yoy vs.consensus estimate of 0.70%mom or 5.90%yoy.
Stabilizing food prices and stronger currency likely will keep inflation under control.We also think the second-round impact of the electricity price hike likely will be limited,given that the hike for industrial customers is capped.
Aug10 trade balance may record a meager surplus,based on our estimate, as strong imports growth likely to persist.We estimate trade balance has booked a surplus of around US$224mn in Aug10,compared to deficit in July.Exports may have grown by 28.0%yoy,imports growth may risen faster by 30.6%,particularly driven by capital goods and raw material imports as investment is recovering.
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