● Despite seasonality, August auto sales volumes were still strong, especially for motorcycles, due to the upcoming Moslem festival. The YoY growth is, however, moderating, as the high-base effect has started to kick in.
● YTD, car volumes grew 69% YoY, reaching 72% of our full-year forecasts, while motorcycle volumes grew 35% YoY, reaching 75% of our full-year forecasts. We see some upside risks to our motorcycle volume forecasts.
● Astra’s market share for car fell to a low 54% in August on seasonally lower demand in August. Meanwhile, its motorcycle market share expanded to 48%, suggesting good inventory planning ahead of peak demand. We have no concerns about Astra’s current dominant market shares.
● We continue to believe, in the short term, auto volumes will remain strong, but see downside risks over the sustainability of strong volume growth due to the government concerns about traffic and fuel subsidy issues. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating.
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