Sector Note - Lower oil price assumptions - by Itphong Saengtubtim
We are cutting our crude oil price assumptions following downgrades in our regional economic growth forecasts. We have cut our average Brent crude price forecasts to US$45/bbl (from US$60/bbl) for FY09, to US$55 (from US$65/bbl) for FY10, and to US$60/bbl (from US$70/bbl) for FY11 onwards. Key reasons are poorer global economic conditions as well as lower GDP growth forecasts for Asian countries. Crude oil prices could ease below US$40.00/bbl in 2Q09. Our top pick remains PGAS, which should be less affected by weak oil prices given its strong volume growth and sustained high margins. Maintain UNDERPEFORM on PTT and PTTEP. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector.
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