(AKRA IJ / AKRA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Upgraded, Rp890 - Tgt. Rp1,050, Chemicals)
We have cut our petroleum volume assumptions for AKR by 9-22% for FY09-11 following softer oil prices compared with FY08. Following this, our EPS forecasts have been cut by 1.7% and 13.7% for FY09-10. On the other hand, we have raised our FY11 core earnings forecast by 11.7% to reflect increased capacity from the JTT and the possibility of further deregulations in the industry. Our EPS adjustments have lifted our DCF-based target price to Rp1,050 from Rp920. This implies 8.5x and 6.3x CY09-10 core earnings. We upgrade the stock from Underperform to Outperform on the back of: 1) potential further deregulations in the downstream oil and gas industry; 2) revenue boosters from the completion of JTT; and 3) sound inventory management.
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