The US$ has been under pressure against other major currencies since Mar and the Dollar Index has fallen more than 10% from the Mar high. Based on our preferred wave count, the Dollar Index has probably been trading in an "expanded flat" formation since 4Q08. If we are right, it is likely to bottom soon at around 76-77. This should be followed by the wave "C" rally towards the 90-100 levels in 2010 before the index finally peaks. Once the Dollar Index starts its major wave "C", most Asian currencies could be under tremendous pressure. Oil price is now close to US$70, double the end-08 level of only US$32.40. US$69-70/barrel is providing a major resistance. Once this rebound ends, the wave 5 downleg could take crude oil price back to US$25-30/barrel, probably sometime in 2010.
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