At Rp6,450/share, BBRI is trading on prospective 12.6x-10.6x 2009F-2010F PER, 4% 2010F Dividend Yield, 2.6x 2010F PBR on the back of 26.3% 2010F RoE. During the peak valuation in 2007 falling interest rates environment, BBRI was trading as high as 4.5x PBR, that will imply a share price of Rp11,000/share assuming 4.5x 2010F PBR. I continue to believe ON SBI Policy rate (currently 7%) to fall further to 6%-6.5% at end-2009F, and therefore I continue to like Banks, and continue recommending Top-Buy BBRI!
· Teddy Oetomo (Daily): We believe that the private consumption of Indonesia is not only resilient but has started to show signs of bottoming out (Top-Down and Bottom-up analysis in our Recent Strategy Report- please let us know if you want us to email).
· In Indonesia’s bank sector, BDMN and BBRI are well-positioned to benefit from the bottoming out of the country’s private consumption. We expect consumer loans (including mass market) to comprise 57% and 47% of BDMN and BBRI’s 2009E loans, representing 51% and 41% of their 2009E interest incomes, respectively.
· We maintain BBRI as our top pick in Indonesia’s banking sector. Our preference for BBRI over BDMN is largely due to the more demanding valuations of the latter on price to book (P/B) and return on equity (ROE) perspective.
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