DBS Economics - Asia: recovery dashboard

Asia’s supply side is surging back in V-shaped fashion
Industrial production rose by another 7% (MoM, sa) in the Asia-8 (5.4% in the Asia-9) between April and March
Industrial production is back to 85% of pre-crisis levels in the Asia-9; it is back to 70% of pre-crisis levels in the Asia-8
W does not follow V except in the alphabet – we do not look for another downward leg in Asia
Beyond near-term W’s, or threats thereof, growth in Asia over the next 5 years is likely to be faster than the last five years
For more detail about the turn, the W-threat and the next five years, see our Quarterly, “Economics – Markets – Strategy” due Thursday, June 11

A supply-side surge has been the key development since our last Dashboard of
two weeks ago (chart below left). Taiwan, Singapore, Korea and Thailand all released strong industrial production (IP) data for April. Singapore’s output rose by nearly 10% (MoM, sa) between March and April even after taking out the pharma sector, which rose by nearly 50% on the month. Thailand’s IP rose by nearly 8%, Taiwan’s 7%; Korea’s by nearly by 3% (see table next page). That’s a 6.7% average rise for the Asia-8 countries reporting so far. China’s rise was more modest at 0.3% (MoM, sa) but even so that leaves an average rise for the Asia-9 of 5.4% for the month.