Liny (Head of Research) remained bullish on Indonesia. Rupiah strength and low inflation give room for BI to cut rates even more aggressively.
We expect rate to go down to 6%by year-end 2009. This should drive continued positive momentum for the Indonesian market. The Indonesian market is currently trading at 2009F PE of 13.3x, a 7% discount to the historical average PE of 14.3x.
Our top pick remained commodity and interest-rate sensitive play. We admit that the banks are not cheap at over 3x P/B for BCA and BRI. Even our top pick Bank Danamon (+44% since our upgrade in the 15May banking sector report) is now already at 2.7x P/B which is not a bargain. BNI is a laggard trading at FY09F P/B of 1.6x. The alternative for interest-rate sensitive play will be property sector which is still cheap tradng at over 50% discount to NAV. BBCA has indicated its plan to launch aggressive mortgage loan program soon. The last time BCA did that in early 2007, it was immediately followed by other banks and saw mortgage loans grew explosively.
Stock picks:
Commodity plays: BUMI Resources, United Tractors and Hexindo Perkasa
Bank: Bank Danamon and Bank Mandiri
Property: Bakrieland, Ciputra Development, Ciputra Property and Summarecon Agung
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