n Our FY10E earnings are 19% ahead of consensus and BDMN's 1Q10A shows that the consensus is too conservative.
n BDMN’s 1Q10A normalised earnings grew by 65% YoY, 22% of our forecast and 26% of consensus’ expectations. Historically, BDMN’s 1Q contributes 21.3% of normalised earnings.
n We like BDMN as a momentum play as we believe that the bank’s share price will follow the strong FY10E earnings growth momentum. We expect even stronger YoY earnings growth in the coming quarter as 1Q09A captures only 6% of the Rp504 bn derivative loss written-off in FY09A.
n We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on BDMN and a target price of Rp6700, based on Gordon’s Growth model, implying 3x 2010E P/B and 17.5x 2010E P/E. We believe that BDMN’s valuation will remain relatively undemanding as the counter is still trading in line with its average historical P/B.
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