· Teddy Oetomo (Daily): Our FY10E earnings are 19% ahead of consensus and BDMN’s 1Q10A shows that the consensus is too conservative. BDMN’s 1Q10A normalised earnings grew by 65% YoY, 22% of our forecast and 26% of consensus’ expectations. Historically, BDMN’s 1Q contributes 21.3% of normalised earnings.
· We like BDMN as a momentum play and maintain our OUTPERFORM rating on BDMN and a target price of Rp6700, based on Gordon’s Growth model, implying 3x 2010E P/B and 17.5x 2010E P/E (remain relatively undemanding as the counter is still trading in line with its average historical P/B). We believe that the bank’s share price will follow the strong FY10E earnings growth momentum, with even stronger YoY earnings growth in the coming quarter as 1Q09A captures only 6% of the Rp504 bn derivative loss written-off in FY09A.
Next week CEO change (AGM on April 29th) will be another catalyst, on the back of expected consensus upgrades on the back of robust normalising (no more derivative loss) 1Q10 EPS. At Rp5,250- BDMN is trading on undemanding 13.7x 2010F PER (+110% EPS Growth), 2.4x 2010F PBR (RoE 19% 2010F & 23% 2011F), and implying 28% upside to TP Rp6,700 (3x PBR), we reiterate Buy BDMN due to its superior earnings growth, as CEO departure partly in the price, Derivative loss behind us, NPL recovery, and improving mid-term RoE to circa 25% level
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