CTRA reported FY09 net income of Rp136bn, a slip of 32.6%yoy, due to forex loss of Rp102bn, despite revenue growth of +2.2% yoy. With FY10F marketing sales of Rp1.8tn(+32.8%yoy), assisted by low mortgage rates the future looks bright for the company, with majority of total land bank dedicated to landed housing projects. We revised our target price to Rp1,100/share, a 22! .2% upsid e from current share price. Maintain buy.
Mixed FY09 results with top-line up and bottom-line down. CTRA booked positive revenue growth for FY09, while preserving gross margin at 45.0%. However, due to forex losses of Rp102.2 bn, mainly resulting from the hedging of CTRP IPO proceeds in US$,FY09F net profit dropped by 32.6%yoy to Rp136bn.
Low mortgage rates’ best friend. This year, the company sets its marketing sales target at Rp1.8tn, an increase of 32.8% yoy, as it’s confident that residential sales especially the low-to mid-end portfolio, such as Citraraya Tangerang and Citraindah Jonggol, will enjoy the falling trend of mortgage rate that has gone into single digit figures (i.e.,Bank Mandiri 9.5% as of Mar10). As per Mar! 10, the company has booked a total marketing sales of Rp465.5 bn(+28.3%yoy), a 26.6% take up of the whole year sales target. Thus it’s running within targets.
Toll access to give benefit to one of its projects. The company stands to benefit from the opening of the JORR W1 (opened in Feb10) toll that gives access to Citragarden Raya residential (which is projected to account to some 12.2% of FY10F marketing sales). The opening could boost demand, and land prices. This gain has already been shown on the 1Q2010 sales figure, where Citragarden Raya has tapped 32.2% of the total target sales in 2010.
Maintain buy with new TP. We revised our target price to Rp1,100 / share based on the conducive single-digit mortgage rate environment as well as better marketing sales equating to higher profit visibility in the next 2-3 years. Currently, the stock trades at a 40% discount to our RNAV10F.
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