Companies Mentioned (Price as of 19 Apr 10)
Banpu Public Co Ltd (BANP.BK, Bt590.00, OUTPERFORM [V], TP Bt722.00)
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG.JK, Rp38200.00, NEUTRAL [V], TP Rp36800.00)
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO.JK, Rp2200.00, NEUTRAL, TP Rp2000.00)
PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA.JK, Rp18150.00, UNDERPERFORM [V], TP Rp11000.00)
Xstrata Plc (XTA.L, 1225.50 p, OUTPERFORM [V], TP 1500.00 p, OVERWEIGHT)
● On the back of CS’s quarterly commodity price revision, we raise our seaborne thermal coal price assumptions by 6% to US$95/t and for QHD thermal in China by 2% to US$97/t. We keep our long-term price unchanged at US$80/t.
● We raise our 2010E earnings by 4.5-11.5% for SEA coal stocks to reflect higher prices in 2010. We are slightly above consensus, except for PTBA, where we are below the market.
● We raise our DCF-based target prices across the board to reflect our new price assumptions and change in discount rate for Adaro to be in line with others. We also provide sensitivities to DCF, assuming long-term coal prices between US$90/t and US$100/t.
● Our top pick in SEA coal remains Banpu, given its lagging performance due to political problems in Thailand. Its businesses are largely based in China and Indonesia. We raise our target price for Banpu to Bt722 (from Bt694).
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar