· Over the last 4 quarters, Astra International has outperformed the JCI over the month following results announcements in every instance. We attribute this to strong earnings driving estimate revisions post results. The post results outperformance has diminished over the last couple of quarters for UNTR, while trends for AALI are more patchy with CPO price moves overshadowing results impact.
Astra companies are due to declare results in the last week of April, and we expect recent performance trends to persist. We are revising forecasts/PTs of all 3 companies ahead of results.
· ASII - 1Q could signal that consensus FY10E is still conservative: We continue to see upside potential for Astra from revisions. Our 1QFY10E PAT stands at Rp3.22 trn, up 10% q/q and a massive 71% y/y. We continue to see it as the best placed within the group for investors looking to trade on results.
· UNTR - Strong net profit growth anticipated – evidence on operating profit momentum key: We expect UNTR to report 1QFYPAT of Rp1.05 trn, up more than 20% q/q. Results should be boosted by currency gains and a one-off asset sale. We would look at operating profit trends, and any evidence that underlying momentum is waning may be a cue to take profits into a post results rally.
· AALI’s disappointing 1Q volumes, but prices should carry the day: AALI reported a disappointing 2.3% decline in 1Q volumes on falling yields in Sumatra. We think that strong CPO prices in 1Q should support profits, and would look for signals on cost trends and whether volume dips are just permanent or likely to impact earnings revisions trends.
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