Upside risk is there as CS average coal price assumption is US$95/t 2010F, $90/t 2011F-2012F, $86/t 2013F, $80/LT; compared to NEWC steam coal spot FOB weekly price US$97.50/t (as of April 16th). In Indonesia Coal Sector, I continue to PREFER ITMG/ADRO/UNTR, while BUMI (Restricted, @Rp2,400- 13.3x 2010 IBES Consensus PER) and DOID (non-rated, @Rp1,070- 7.4x 2010 IBES Consensus PER) are laggards; we maintain Underperform rating on PTBA!
Please see Sensitivity Analysis if coal price is flat $95/t & flat $100/t for 2010F:
(2010F, Rp) RO ITMG PTBA BANPU
EPS $95/t 2010F 121 US$0.29 987 Bt53.2
DCF $95/t 2010F 2,000 36,800 11,000 Bt722
Stock Price 2,200 38,350 17,600 Bt624
PER @$95/t 2010F 18.2x 14.7x 17.8x 11.7x
DCF IF $95/t flat 3,110 49,900 13,400 Bt851
Implied Upside +41% +30% -24% +36%
DCF IF $100/t flat 3,510 55,600 14,100 Bt907
Implied Upside 59% +45% -20% +45%
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