JPMorgan analyst Stevanus Juanda made all kinds of forecast adjustments to the companies he follows today. The key drivers behind the change are (1) thermal coal price upgrade to US$90 from US$80 (a belated adjustment, Xstrata recent settlement at US$98), (2) nickel price upgrade by 37% to US$10.37/lb, (3) stronger IDR of Rp9,000 from Rp9,500. Post revision, the controversial earnings call are in Indofood (where Steve's FY11 EPS growth forecast is well ahead of the Street), Inco (FY10 forecast 70% ahead of the Street), and Bumi Resources (FY10 forecast 30% below the Street). Of these three, I agree with the INCO call. My personal preference on Indo commodities are INCO, INDY, and BUMI (as a wild card). PTBA and INDF are profit taking candidates.
Adaro Energy - FY10 EPS lowered by 6% to Rp114 (consensus Rp121), placing the stock on 19.3x P/E. Price target raised to Rp3000 from Rp2400. Value enhancement from purchase of Maruwai stake is estimated to be Rp194/share. O/W.
Bumi Resources - FY10 net profit lowered by 17% to US$273mn (consensus US$388mn), placing the stock on 20.3x P/E. Price target raised to Rp3300 from Rp3000. The increase in tax rate assumption weighted on EPS outcome. O/W.
Indo Tambang - FY10 net profit upped by 61% to US$390mn (consensus US$306mn, implied P/E 15.6x), placing the stock on 12.6x P/E. Price target raised to Rp43,500 from Rp33,900. O/W.
Bukit Asam - on an earlier note dated 26 March, FY10 EPS raised by 22% to Rp1107 (consensus Rp1178), placing the stock on 16.3x P/E. Price target raised to Rp24,000 from Rp23,000. O/W.
Inco - FY10 net profit raised by 92% to US$468mn (consensus US$274mn, next highest forecast is US$368mn). Average nickel price raised by 37% to US$10.37/lb. The new forecast places the stock on 12.1x FY10 P/E. PxT raised to Rp5800 from Rp4200. O/W.
Aneka Tambang - FY10 EPS raised by 16% to Rp149 (consensus Rp125, one more bullish forecast at Rp166). Average nickel price raised by 37% to US$10.37/lb. The new forecast places the stock on 17.2x FY10 P/E. PxT raised to Rp2,475 from Rp3,200. O/W.
Indofood - minor upward adjustment to core EPS for FY10-11 of between 2-3%. The highlight is the 32% EPS growth forecast for FY11, driven by huge EBIT margin assumption (13.7% to 14.3%) and 8% top line growth. If Steve's forecast is right, there is more upside to Indofood as the forecast implies an FY11 P/E of 11.7x. Consensus NPAT for FY11 is Rp2,317bn (P/E of 14.5x) vs. JPMe of Rp2,831bn. PxT raised to Rp4,500. O/W.
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