Bakrie Telecom
Representative: Mr. Jastiro Abi (CFO); Mr. Wim Andrian (Head of Investor Relations)
No downward pressure on tariffs; off-peak prices may rise. Bakrie Telecom expects Telkomsel to lift tariffs for “off-peak” calls, noting that subscribers pay more attention to “peak” calls.
2009 outlook. Bakrie does not expect any significant impact from slower economic growth since the Co is positioned as a low-cost (rather than premium) service provider. The company expects to have 10.5mn subscribers (+3.5mn subs, 50% YoY growth) in 2009 from three sources: (1) first-time subscribers; (2) dual-SIM users (GSM & CDMA users); (3) switchers (GSM switchers into CDMA). The company expects to maintain 2009 EBITDA margin at ~33-34% and targets long-term EBITDA margin at ~35%.
Low cost, simple plans – key differentiator vs competitors. Bakrie offers simple, flat pricing for calls, e.g. Rp55/min for on-net calls, Rp880/min for off-net (vs top 3 operators which use time band-based pricing) and cheap handsets (cheapest handset in market at Rp199k, ~US$16.60). Bakrie Tel sources bulk of its CDMA handsets from Huawei.
Capex budget of ~US$200m p.a. for 2008-2010. To support its subscriber growth ambitions, the company is budgeting to spend ~US$200mn capex in 2009. This will be primarily for capacity expansion. Capex will be largely funded by existing cash balance from the US$300mn rights issue in 1Q 08.
Expects regulatory developments to favor company prospects. Bakrie sees the regulatory environment as supportive. The Co expects to benefit from lower interconnect rates and from change in spectrum fee calculations.
Does not foresee industry consolidation. The company does not foresee major M&A in the fixed-wireless segment. Bakrie Telecom is focused on organic growth and will only consider buying a smaller operator for compatible spectrum. Bakrie Telekom’s (and Mobile 8) use the 800MHz spectrum band.
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