· Semen Gresik’s 2008 results were strong (+42% YoY), 12% above our FY08 forecast (and 13% above consensus) on the back of better top-line growth (in both volume and prices) and higher net interest income.
· The company’s EBITDA margin increased to a high 32% during 4Q08, resulting in EBITDA jumping 39% YoY. Below the operating line, the company’s stronger cash position has resulted in better net interest income, which came in 21% above our forecasts.
· Regarding de-bottlenecking its capacity, the company plans to increase its capacity by 1 mn tonnes to 19 mn tonnes in 2009, while the big capex plans are still in tact. SMGR’s plans of exploring overseas opportunities are in a very early stage.
· We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating due to our positive stance on the stock, especially on pricing power and strong balance sheet. We believe that the key risk for Semen Gresik and the industry is demand, which has started to show some declining trend in the past two months.
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