[BRIGHT INFO] Weekly Outlook “PTBA and BBCA”

[BRIGHT INFO] Weekly Outlook “PTBA and BBCA”
[Personal Opinion by MOD] Sunday, February 22, 2009

General
JCI Closed lower last week amid lack of positive sentiment on market.
CDS still wide but IDR looks under pressure at 11,950 but stable after BI enter the market.
Lower IDR puts companies with USD debt exposure and raw material import under pressure. Lower IDR could reduce EPS. Lower IDR negative for INDF, UNSP, KLBF (and Pharmaceutical sector), PGAS.
Liquidity mostly still thin.
Oil below $38 a barrel and CPO price looks lower below RM2,000 a ton.

Our Focus
PTBA (BUY)
Indonesian state coal miner PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam expects its coal sales to increase by 13 percent this year on firm demand from the power sector (President Director).
In 2008 Bukit Asam was able to boost its coal production to above 10m tons.
Margin expansion is expected as production cost, driven by lower fuel price.
We believe net profit to peak this year on the back of higher coal production and higher domestic price. So we expect FY08 result mid-march will strong. We believe settlement of the 2009 price with PLTU Tarahan very positive and 1Q09 result will solid.
Nine Locomotives will be delivered by July’09.

BBCA (BUY)
Like many other banks, the current global economic turmoil is also expected to slash BBCA’s loan growth this year.
BBCA’s excess liquidity will likely be placed in SBI, which rates are projected to decline this year. Consequently, we expect the bank’s NIM to decline but BBCA has successfully established low cost of fund as major source of financing. BBCA's major fund structure consists of saving this spreads with wider NIM which is good for the bank itself.
With limited funding growth we still believe BBCA ability to boost lending growth.
We believe BBCA will have better LDR, better NIM amid loosening benchmark interest and can maintaining NPL ratio.
We believe BBCA will be able to weather the crisis due to its sound risk management and strong liquidity.

BEI’S IDOL
Bumi Resources has become a “Rock Star” last week by having more than 30% of BEI market capitalization and will still be one this week.