[BRIGHT INFO] Weekly Outlook

[BRIGHT INFO] Weekly Outlook

General
• On average JCI closed slightly positive last week
• CDS still wide but IDR looks stable at 11,800
• Liquidity mostly still thin
• Oil below $40 a barrel
• CPO price looks higher above RM2,000 a ton

Sector
• Bank; after sharp decline around 27% on average at this sector (Bluechip Banks), We think bank sector more attractive. We still put Neutral on Bank Sector but looking short-term rebound so we took opportunity on Buy on Weakness specially on BMRI and BBCA
• ASII; after sharp decline we looks opportunity to technical rebound, we believe sales will improve soon after interest rate cut by BI on next meeting. Buy on Weakness for short-term rebound.
• Telco; TLKM believes tariffs bottomed in 4Q08 and that the price war is coming to an end, Telkomsel subscribers continue to grow, Telkom flexi gain strong traction, Broadband contribution continues to increase, Management acknowledged that they are looking into potential investment in Iran and fully aware of the political risk and potential backfire from its shareholders.
• Agro; CPO price still climbing maintain positive on this sector. LSIP, UNSP and AALI
• Energy, PGAS volume looks double on “Muara Tawar” . This is positive for PGAS, Management denied that Gas price will cut. Change our view to Outperform from Neutral.
• Coal; On weekly average price coal looks up around 4$/ton at $80,28 and on monthly at $82,68 up from $78,18. Maintain positive on coal price. Our top pick are PTBA, ITMG, ADRO and BUMI (for more risky).

Our Focus BMRI
• Recent loan restructuring and recovery effort have also helped reduce Mandiri’s gross NPL below 5%.
• Improving asset utilization coupled with declining NPL should improve BMRI profitability over the next few years
• BMRI have the highest asset quality, lowest NPL industry, highest NIM and lowest cost structure
• Gross NPL down to 4.7% YoY from from 7.2% 2007
• With EPS consensus idr 222 TP consensus idr 2,350

[Personal Opinion by Mod]