January 4W sales down 20% M/M, worse than what recent media reports indicated
Downward pressure intact; we stay UW: On February 11, 2009,
ASII’s stock price fell over 6% on news (Bloomberg) that vehicle sales in January were 34,000 units. With actual figures being lower, we expect negative reaction to this data. Our FY09E EPS for Astra is 15% below the consensus estimate; we expect downward estimate revisions after a potentially weak sales release. We see this as a key negative driver. Hence, we reiterate our UW rating on Astra.
We prefer UNTR within the group: Our Dec-09 PT of Rp7,700 for Astra is in line with its current book value, and based on 6x FY09E EPS, which is in line with previous trough values. Value accruing from Astra’s subsidiaries (which have recently outperformed the parent) is a risk to our view, but investors could look at UNTR directly to play this angle.
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