*Perusahaan Gas Negara: Steady Ship in Rough Seas*
Adam Worthington’s (analyst) channel checks with the operators of the Muara Tawar power plant highlight that the Muara Tawar oil to gas conversion process is complete. He understands the company is now delivering over 240 MMSCFD, and PLN is requesting the full 300 MMSCFD. In terms of total volumes PGAS is now running about about 780 MMSCFD and is on track to win some more gas sales agreement with PLN (and another third party). He sees upside risk to our 2009E distribution forecast of 800 MMSCFD. For a defensive utility company with visible growth profile like PGAS, the stock appears attractive on FY09 PER of 7.7x, FCF yield of 6.8%, and a div yield of 3.6%, roughly a 30% discount to the regional peers. For every 10% change in distribution volume forecast, EPS will change by 10%. Meanwhile, a weaker Rp/US$ exchange rate will also lift EPS.
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